Why Polls Got Wisconsin Governor’s Race Wrong—After Socialist Francesca Hong Loses

Crowley secured a surprise victory in the Wisconsin primary election for Governor, defeating Democratic socialist Francesca Hong. The result contradicted expectations from Kalshi betting odds, which had previously assigned Hong a winning probability of over 95% on Tuesday. Following the unexpected outcome, Crowley has emphasized the importance of unity. This primary race has sparked discussions regarding why polling and betting markets failed to accurately predict the final results of the Wisconsin gubernatorial contest.